Drain pipe clogging in winter.....

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Eastern Ontario
Here's my problem, I bought a country house in 2018 and in 2019 dug around the foundation to replace the drain tile to fix a wet basement, with success.
I don't think the previous owner had issues with waste water draining properly to the septic tank as he had the cleanout wye open to accept the discharge hose from his sump pump.
It's a 3" pipe with one toilet, a bath tub, sink and washer emptying into it.
So in 2022, 3 years after my drain tile repair my toilet backed up....in February during a cold snap.

Called a plumber as the entire drain pipe run was full of fluid, out of my pay grade.....
He used a power router from the toilet around a 40-50 ft run to the septic tank ....and $450 dollars later the problem was solved.

I quizzed him a bit as to the cause, tree roots, or a frozen plug developing somehow?
He couldn't speculate but I thought it was just my bad luck, oh well....

I paid close attention this year to any symptoms of an impending clog and sure enough last week another slow draining episode occurred.
I checked the pipe tapping it in the basement, sure enough the pipe was filling. slowly....
I avoided that leg of the system until I could open the wye without problem, took a few hours to drain...then rented a General power auger.
All went well,problem solved but here's my question....what might be the cause?

I remember moving the 2 large propane tanks to excavate the earth and sealed the penetration where the 3" pipe exited the foundation, the pipe spanned the 4 foot span over the trench and I was careful not to disturb it, but did see it develop a 'belly', maybe an inch over the 4' span so when I back filled I paid close attention to that area as the tanks were going back over that pipe and I didn't want a problem later.

Now I think I may be euchred and the earth settling with the weight of the tanks above has cause a ice dam to form about half way through the winter due to a more pronounced belly forming in the pipe....

Does my hypothesis sound like a valid one?
If the tanks weren't there It would be a day or two with a couple of spades to confirm.
Hey, wait a minute.

This is awkward, but...

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