24 year old system replacement plan

[The harrymanimus]

I have an ac / gas furnace system that was installed in 2000. Seems to be working just fine. I read that in 2028 there will be new regulations for 95% efficient gas heating systems. I was wanting to come up with a plan, just in case my system looks like it is lasting up until then. I want to keep gas, but do not want to get in a situation where I’m paying extra for this new tech, and the extra install/setup expense. Thoughts on if/when I should think about a replacement, even if it’s still going strong?

I can’t remember exactly, I think the current system is a 12 seer, 3.5 ton (1800 sq foot house). It’s a Weather King with scroll compressor.

I’ll also mention that the efficiency of the old unit has not been that much of an issue for me as I aggressively change companies every couple of years to lock in good kwh prices.

 

[Fitter30]

95%+ gas furnaces have around since the 1980s and 18 seer ac systems variable speed compressors and indoor blowers. Unless your buying now a builders grade system with psc fan and blower motors your going to be paying for it with new refrigerates coming,( 410a jan 2025 won't be in new equipment) , ecm motors, micro channel coils and all the electronics on one board. R32 & R454B refrigerants will be rolled out this year. Still there are federal, some states, electric companies rebates. Some electric companies offer a energy audit that includes a blower door test at a very reasonable cost.

 

[Sponsor]

 

[Breplum]

We have had 96% AFUE Ultra Low Nox gas furnaces here in CA for many years. There is acidic condensate to drain, which we do straight to the ground in most of our climates. Not very hard or difficult on that front.

There is a push nationally to get rid of gas furnaces in favor of heat pump. But unless your electricity is from solar PV on your roof and can handle the total use, it is still way cheaper to heat with gas.
My 26 y.o. 80% is a candidate for upgrading to 96% gas and I ought to update now while I can still get gas equipment in California. Pre-Covid, a good name brand 96% condensing gas furnace cost was around $1,500. It is now an additional $1,000 for raw purchase.
Yes, I know about hybrid heat where you combine a gas furnace as air handler (York called it Hybrid Heat) to allow for options. In the past, the setup was very complicated. I would love to hear of hybrid system updates that are easier to set up.

 

[Fitter30]

We have had 96% AFUE Ultra Low Nox gas furnaces here in CA for many years. There is acidic condensate to drain, which we do straight to the ground in most of our climates. Not very hard or difficult on that front.

There is a push nationally to get rid of gas furnaces in favor of heat pump. But unless your electricity is from solar PV on your roof and can handle the total use, it is still way cheaper to heat with gas.
My 26 y.o. 80% is a candidate for upgrading to 96% gas and I ought to update now while I can still get gas equipment in California. Pre-Covid, a good name brand 96% condensing gas furnace cost was around $1,500. It is now an additional $1,000 for raw purchase.
Yes, I know about hybrid heat where you combine a gas furnace as air handler (York called it Hybrid Heat) to allow for options. In the past, the setup was very complicated. I would love to hear of hybrid system updates that are easier to set up.

Anytime a system is more complicated the sharper the service people have to be, their tools and education. The contractor has to be large enough to send a couple people for training and having a close relationship with the local dealer branch.

 

[The harrymanimus]

Some good info here, but I'm not sure I can parse out a good plan from the info. Any recommendations like?
a) Wait until it dies, doesn't matter
b) Buy in 2027 before the 95% regulations kick in.
c) Buy in 2025 because of X/Y/Z reasons
d) etc

I'm in Texas, if that matters.

 

[Reach4]

a) Wait until it dies

A new system may be more failure-prone rather than your older system. It is not like cars, IMO.

 

[Fitter30]

There isn't a good answer for the ac a compressor doesn't have to go bad to replace the system the condensate pan could fall apart drip into the blower. Nobody would replace a pan would have to be custom made. Refrigerant 410a in 2025 it will still available but since covid its triple in price ,probably add 50% when its for existing systems. Have no idea what the new refrigerant will cost but they will hold less. Copper prices are going skyrocket in 2025

Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say

Copper prices are poised to hit $15,000 on the back of mining supply disruptions amid higher demand for the red metal.

www.google.com

Since you can wait look at mild weather months when contractor might be slower. Contractors are changing out complete systems in a day where pieces are accessible.