The Fourth Turning

Discussion in 'Ian's Corner' started by DougB, Aug 5, 2014.

  1. DougB

    DougB Member

    I read a book many years ago called "The Fourth Turning". It has to do with Generational Dynamics and history repeating itself.

    Two historians analyzed specifically American history, and saw a pattern - history repeated about every 80 years. With these 80 years segments, there are four distinct phases - each approx. 20 years long - they called these phases 'Turnings'. The most important Turning is the Fourth Turning.

    ·The first turning is a ‘high,’ an upbeat era in which institutions are strengthened, new civic orders are planted and individualism is weakened.
    ·The second turning is an ‘awakening,’ a passionate era of spiritual upheaval in which the civic order is challenged by new values.
    ·The third turning is an ‘unraveling,’ a time when individualism rises and institutions and civic orders weaken and new values are implanted.
    ·The fourth turning is a ‘crisis’ time when there is widespread upheaval and civic orders are replaced with new ones.

    The last fourth turning was 1929 - 1949.

    The start of this fourth turning is 2008 - the great Recession - just about 80 years from 1929.

    What's interesting to me is how the crisis seems to be global in nature, and how the number of crisis grows and grows. The latest four being US invaded by illegals / Ebola / ISIS / Israel. It seems there is now a crisis every couple of weeks.
  2. Terry

    Terry Administrator Staff Member

    Messages:
    15,130
    Location:
    Bothell, Washington
    My mother is 97, so I have heard a lot about what their life had been like.
    My grandmother never thought man would walk on the moon.
    In 1929, my father dropped out of Junior High and started working full time. Some of his jobs were driving logging trucks, and felling trees. He also worked with dynomite building roads in the North Cascades.
    He finally went back and finished high school, graduating at the age of 22. He then went on to college, helped by a track scholarship. He ate a lot of peanut butter and jelly sandwhiches. And then of course, he gets out of college and into a war.
    On my mother side, her dad died while she was in high school. They had a farm, and some crops. The neigbors came by and took the crop before they could harvest it. I guess the figured without her dad; they could.
    They have always said that some generations have it harder. Lessons either get learned, or forgotten. It seems to cycle. I remember my father saying that one night eight people died in a fight about unions. They had come through the depression, lucky to have work, and I imagine a lot of employers liked how that was working for them. I've only had two union jobs, good ones. I believe if you do well, you should be paid well. The money finds a way of moving around. It all comes back to you. I don't know if my grandkids will be as well off as some generations. The world seems to be getting a little harder. I say that, but really in many parts, people are better off than they were. They say that areas of the world with plentiful water will do well in the future. It's good for food, and for manufacturing.
  3. johnfrwhipple

    johnfrwhipple Bathroom Design & Build - North Vancouver, B.C.

    Messages:
    4,442
    Location:
    North Vancouver, BC
    Here in the Pacific Northwest we should be fine. I think a home for my grand kids will start at $5,000,000 and up here in Vancouver. $1,200,000 these days is a tear down.

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