Also note, most furnaces installed in 1969 were ~3x or more oversized for the heat load of the house at the
99% outside design temperature, and most houses have had upgrades in windows/insulation/air-sealing since then. While it's unlikely that the original furnace is still in service, most HVAC installers spec replacement equipment with roughly the same (often slightly higher) heat output rather than risk pulling a defeat from the jaws of victory under the theory that "It heated the place just fine for a few decades so it's fine". While an oversized furnace still heats the place, oversizing is the enemy of comfort.
If your furnace is more than 15 years old it's worth running
a fuel-use based load calculation, which is a
measurement of the heat requirements of the house in it's current condition that includes all of the distribution losses such as leaky ducts and the infiltration losses of the illegitimate return paths created by the unbalanced duct system, etc.. ASHRAE recommends a 1.4x oversize factor, which is enough to cover the load during the extreme cold snaps during Polar Vortex disturbance events, but still runs at a (1/1.4=) 71% duty cycle during the normal peak cold temps. This reduces the hot-flash followed by the extended chill experience that typifies 3x oversizing that people have somehow gotten to think of as "normal". While 3x oversizing allows for more rapid recovery from overnight setbacks, it's really nowhere near as comfortable as right-sizing.
When right-sizing a replacement furnace with a big reduction in size, the cfm of the air handler drops, which reduces the amount of room pressurization from unbalanced duct systems, reduces noise and wind-chill/draft effects and even improves the performance of filters, reducing dust.
The overall, effects on efficiency are negligible (unless the ducts are grossly out of balance, and that balance isn't being fixed)- there is no "payback" in financial terms from retiring a furnace early, but as a rule right sizing does pay back in comfort. So if you can prove to your own satisfaction what the loads really are by tracking gas bills & comparing fuel use to heating degree-days you can avoid the common mistake of replacing like-for-like. The heat loads of homes are MUCH lower than most people (including HVAC contractors) generally believe.
Nate Adams is a consultant/contractor in Cleveland OH who recently published a book on how to achieve and maximize home comfort, in which he complains/explains at length the problems associated with oversizing the equipment. It's worth reading his free download chapters and watching the short videos on
Home Comfort and
HVAC s
tuff any time you're hacking on the heating system or replacing the heating equipment. There is merit to his other stuff as well- he has plenty of insights that casual observers often miss, and explains it reasonably well. The comfort equation can't be solved by HVAC or insulation & air sealing upgrades alone- it's multi-dimensional, but it's not rocket science either.