Gas burner, propane, or oil?
What was the input & output BTU ratings on the old furnace?
What is the input & output BTU of the new furnace? A "high efficiency" furnace is anything 90% (output divided by input) and up efficiency, but there's a significant difference between 90% and 98%.
Assuming the old one was rated 78% and had degraded to 75% with corrosion on the heat exchanger or dirty burners, and the new one is 95% it only takes 75/95 the amount of fuel (about 80%)to deliver the same amount of heat to the ducts, a 21% savings. If the cfm of the blower is significantly lower the duct leakage would be lower too, with somewhat lower distribution losses due to both lower pressure and lower temperature air.
The efficiency of the blower motor may be higher too, saving on power use despite a higher duty cycle/longer run times.
Unlike hydronic boilers, low mass hot air furnaces don't take an efficiency hit from being oversized until/unless the oversizing factor is truly huge and the thing is short cycling like crazy.
So depending on the steady state efficiency numbers and other factors it could be anywhere from 10% to 25% fuel savings, probably not 30%, and definitely more than 5%.