A heat load of 41-45K for a 3100' house is credible. And witn ~200' of baseboard it means it can deliver the full BTU with ~120F average water temp (AWT), which is in the condensing zone, making it an ideal fit for a condensing boiler. In fact you may opt to run it at a fixed temperature rather than using outdoor reset, for reasons outlined below.
The shortest zone is 26' of baseboard, which will emit ~5000 BTU/hr @ 120F AWT (nicely into the condensing zone, with 110-115F return water), so it really matters how much the toe-kick heater is putting out, or if it can be adjusted to even turn on at water temps that low (some can, others not.)
The very
SMALLEST of the wall-hung combis out there have a min-fire output of about twice that, but not enough domestic hot water output to cover more than one shower at a time.
Not all cycling is short-cycling. With low mass boilers burns as short as 3 minutes are neither an efficiency or maintenance problem as long as it isn't 10 burns per hour. The previously mentioned UFT-080W had a minimum firing rate of about 7500 BTU/hr out, and at 125F out, 115F back (120F AWT) the 26' of basboard is emitting 2/3 of that, with only 2500 BTU/hr ( 42 BTU/minute) of "extra" driving the cycling. The boiler has about 3 gallons, and there is probably on the order of another gallon in the zone & distribution plumbing for about 30-35lbs of water. At 42 BTU/minute and 30lbs of water the temperature is slewing 1.4 degrees per minute, so even a 5F swing around the boiler's set point would deliver a 3.5 minute minimum burn, a 7F swing would deliver on the order of five minutes. This isn't a short cycling disaster, and the duty cycle is high enough that the odds of overlapping calls from other zones is also high. So even with just the 26' it won't cycle rapidly even if just the 26' (with or without toe-kick operating) zone is calling for heat, as long as the boiler is set up to deliver water no cooler than about 120F (for an AWT of 115F or so) which is fine.
The output of low-rise fin-tube baseboard becomes very non-linear with temperature and harder to predict at AWTs less than 115-120F, and at temps much cooler than that the toe-kick heater would be putting out a tepid wind-chill on bare feet rather than a "warm summer breeze" effect.
The
NTI Trinity TX51 would work here too, with a min-fire input of 7,100 BTU and a condensing output (x 0.95=) ~6700 BTU/hr. At high-fire it'll still deliver 52-54,000 BTU/hr in near-condensing or low-condensing mode, so you'll have at least a ~1.2x or higher oversize factor, which is fine. But the UFT-80W or Navien's NHB-80 would give you more margin for Polar Vortex coolth, delivering ~70,000 BTU/hr even at water temps well above the condensing zone.
With a wall-hung combi (or bigger mod-con boiler) with a min-fire output in the 10-11,000 BTU/hr range you'd have 7500-8000 BTU/hr of extra, which would cut the burn times down to a minute or less, which WOULD be a short-cycling problem.
If going with cast iron, the
CGa-3 puts out 59,000 BTU/hr (DOE) which would be about right. The CGa-4's DOE output is 88,000 BTU/hr which is twice your design condition heat load. With 59,000 BTU/hr going into ~200' of baseboard you're looking at 300 BTU/foot, so when all zones are calling for heat it'll be edging pretty close to the condensing zone, with a 140F-ish AWT, which good for efficiency, but potentially damaging to the boiler if it spends a lot of time
actually condensing inside the boiler. Protecting it from condensing would require designing and implementing a bypass branch to mix boiler output water with the return water, to keep the entering water temps sufficiently above condensing. Cast iron boilers will short cycle on zone calls too (your existing boiler probably short cycles a bit- are the burns always longer than 5 minutes?), so it's important to set up the boiler controls to take maximum advantage of the thermal mass in the boiler when only one or two stubby zones are calling for heat. With your micro-zones it would be worth installing a retrofit heat purge economizer control, such as the Intellicon HW+ to limit the short cycling.
The Burnham
ES2-3 is about the same size as the CGa-3 but is set up for on-board smart heat-purging controls to managing cycling, and is internally protected for low entering water temperatures (down to 110F return water). For those reasons it would be a better bet than the CGa-3, since it's a no-brainer install, no design skills necessary.
The Burnham
ESC-3 has a DOE output of 52,000 BTU/hr which at ~1.2x oversizing is also about right, and like the ES2 is also internally protected from cool return water temperatures. Like a mod-con, the ESC series are "direct vented", meaning that the combustion air is ducted from the outdoors, and the exhaust is power vented. That would allow you to block up the port to the chimney, which lowers the actual heat load, since the parasitic drafting of the chimney when the boiler isn't firing goes away. But it's probably going to be more expensive to install than the smaller mod-cons, since the exhaust venting has to be stainless steel instead of plastic.