"Investment", spelled with an "A", as in "ROA"?
Is that down-east Maine dialect, or something?
Badger-Morgan: There's really no argument for sticking with oil. Twenty minutes from now the EPA might require soot scrubbers on oil-burners in urban areas as a public health measure or maybe all hydrocarbons will be taxed for the CO2 emissions, in which case a carbon tax would make it even less attractive relative to natural gas. I really don't forsee heating oil hitting price parity with gas for any length of time (no matter how fast the Persians or Canuckistanis can produce it), and the local emissions issues and higher burner maintenance makes it a PITA even if it did.
At the current price of oil the Canadians can still make money on already developed oil sand projects, but it won't pay for the infrastructure cost of developing more oil sand processing. Canadian production rates cannot/will not increase until there's a stronger price signal, which will only happen if the world demand catches up, and the price starts rising. That could take a good while if Iranian oil is allowed to be traded on the world market. If it's longer than 3 years the shale oil boomlet will have faded to a trickle, since only the very best shale oil can still break even on the development costs at $60/bbl (today's price.) My in-laws are considering leaving Calgary if the oil prices don't pick up by the end of this year.
If you're on the gas grid, go with it, unless the air-conditioning aspect of high efficiency air source heat pumps makes it a compelling alternative. At recent winter gas & electricity prices in the Boston area heating with a better-class mini-split is more expensive than 85% efficiency gas, but substantially cheaper than oil. But that was after a ~25-30% rate hike for electricity. Prior to then a better-class mini-split was at rough parity with condensing gas.
Is that down-east Maine dialect, or something?
Badger-Morgan: There's really no argument for sticking with oil. Twenty minutes from now the EPA might require soot scrubbers on oil-burners in urban areas as a public health measure or maybe all hydrocarbons will be taxed for the CO2 emissions, in which case a carbon tax would make it even less attractive relative to natural gas. I really don't forsee heating oil hitting price parity with gas for any length of time (no matter how fast the Persians or Canuckistanis can produce it), and the local emissions issues and higher burner maintenance makes it a PITA even if it did.
At the current price of oil the Canadians can still make money on already developed oil sand projects, but it won't pay for the infrastructure cost of developing more oil sand processing. Canadian production rates cannot/will not increase until there's a stronger price signal, which will only happen if the world demand catches up, and the price starts rising. That could take a good while if Iranian oil is allowed to be traded on the world market. If it's longer than 3 years the shale oil boomlet will have faded to a trickle, since only the very best shale oil can still break even on the development costs at $60/bbl (today's price.) My in-laws are considering leaving Calgary if the oil prices don't pick up by the end of this year.
If you're on the gas grid, go with it, unless the air-conditioning aspect of high efficiency air source heat pumps makes it a compelling alternative. At recent winter gas & electricity prices in the Boston area heating with a better-class mini-split is more expensive than 85% efficiency gas, but substantially cheaper than oil. But that was after a ~25-30% rate hike for electricity. Prior to then a better-class mini-split was at rough parity with condensing gas.