I have been called back from the grave to respond to a private message on the subject above. Do not send me any more private messages or I will do my best to pursue a legal action against you for harassment.
While it is not 0.0000, the likelihood of
a light bulb used for test purposes
harming anyone during the short test period of use
due to a power surge
is probably between
dying from a shark attack [~55 deaths/yr]
and being hit by an object from outer space [1 person in 50 years?].
Does anyone know of anyone being harmed by a light bulb exploding due to a power surge while they were handling it?
I am continually surprised that most people have trouble with this concept even though probability governs our decisions from birth to death, whether we want it to or not.
To the author of the PM; study up on risk, decision theory, and game theory. I certainly have. DV Lindley is one author I recommend, as well as Baruch Fischhoff.
Against my better judgement I will post some of my background -
BSEE, MSEE, some computer science credits, worked as an elec. eng. for 37 years.
For God's sake. . .
While it is not 0.0000, the likelihood of
a light bulb used for test purposes
harming anyone during the short test period of use
due to a power surge
is probably between
dying from a shark attack [~55 deaths/yr]
and being hit by an object from outer space [1 person in 50 years?].
Does anyone know of anyone being harmed by a light bulb exploding due to a power surge while they were handling it?
I am continually surprised that most people have trouble with this concept even though probability governs our decisions from birth to death, whether we want it to or not.
To the author of the PM; study up on risk, decision theory, and game theory. I certainly have. DV Lindley is one author I recommend, as well as Baruch Fischhoff.
Against my better judgement I will post some of my background -
BSEE, MSEE, some computer science credits, worked as an elec. eng. for 37 years.
For God's sake. . .
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