TEXAS FOLKS - Time to react.

[Valveman]

I think it is ironic that New Hampshire has the infrastructure and all the natural gas they need while Texas, where a big part of NG comes from was left flapping in the wind. I would have thought it would have been the other way around.

I am sort of a prepper so, I bought a generator and was ready for this 25 years ago. For the first 10 years or so I diligently changed the oil and regularly tested the generator. After that I got complacent and forgot about the generator. When I needed it this time, it would not start. Bad gas, old oil, and sitting in storage for years. Got it cleaned up and working again about the time the power came back on. Generators take a lot of regular maintenance. That means keeping the stored gas fresh as well. Having NG connected would be great as fuel would be one less thing to worry about.

Could never have enough batteries to last through a cold spell like this. A generator is the only sure way to have power.

 

[Themp]

Agree. But will any of this matter if the population of the earth doubles in the next 50 years? We have to get our priorities straight. Reduce the earth's population by half in the next 50 years, and none of these things will matter. Our grandchildren could have a forested planet, oceans full of fish, land with a multitude of animals, water to drink, food to eat, and all the energy, renewable and not, that they need. We just have to quit making more parasites to invest the earth. If other life forms have been watching our planet from afar for the last 100 years or so, they are saying "the parasites on that planet are about to destroy the host". They will have seen a lush green planet turn brown and murky. Eventually it was covered with huge poles that had three big blades spinning on top. There is a point where the host will not be able to recover, and I am afraid we are getting close to that point.

I am a 'Boomer' with three kids(millennials) and I recently watched this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Attenborough:_A_Life_on_Our_Planet

Politicians I really do not listen too, but I did listen to A Life on Our Planet. The outtake for me was:

1. The rain forests need to be re-established to trap carbon like they have done for the life of the planet.
2. We have to go vegan.
3. The earth's population will stabilize and maybe drop some if we provide universal healthcare for third world countries. Attenborough thinks this will happen with further education of the world population also.

Bill Gates is throwing his ideas around also, and they are similar to Attenborough. I like his one idea of trapping carbon in concrete.

But, when I ask my kids to watch this, one did and the other two did not. The one that did was not going to really do anything to change at this point. So, if the current generation is not really up for these changes, I do not think it will happen. One actually said make Amazon pay for it!

Oh, and Attenborough is not going vegan at this point, so again you take all of this with a grain of salt.

 

[Sponsor]

 

[Sarg]

Silly concepts do not improve with time .... they remain silly forever.

 

[Valveman]

I watched that entire series. I really like David Attenborough and that series was fantastic. What I got out of that series was the population problem. David had a count on the population at several points in his 93 years. If you notice how the population exploded during his/our lifetime, it leaves a lasting impression. My take from this series is that the population is the problem. Cover the entire surface of the planet with wind turbines and make free/cheap energy available and the population problem will just get worse.

I also watched a show called "The Plastic Nile". They showed how humans have polluted the Nile, mostly with plastic bags and water bottles, until the Nile is choked and filled with plastic. In the last part of the show they said there are 200 million people living along the Nile now, and that number will increase to 400 million in the next 40 years. Making plastic bags illegal, getting power from hydro, wind, waves, tide, or nuclear, switching to a vegan diet, and lots of other things will not help when the population continues to explode. There comes a point when the host planet cannot survive so many blood sucking leaches. Humans think they are God's gift to the universe. In reality we are parasites sucking every last resource from our host. Some parasites learn not to kill the host. Unfortunately, humans are not that smart.

 

[Gsmith22]

For extreme but relatively short duration events such as this one, and hurricanes, etc., the most reliable source of backup energy for my family appears to be a generator and big propane tank(s). So that is what I will be researching between now and summer. How long can I store energy in the form of propane in a tank? Nearly indefinitely I would imagine.

Unless someone can show me a solar system that will run my 3 ton heat pump for a week for similar money. It was overcast every day since Sunday except one.

Generac Pwrcell is about as complete a system available to do exactly what you want. 3ton heat pumps with a soft start could easily be started by this system and with panels being charged everyday, it will recharge the batteries for use at night. Closest competitor is tesla solar walls but that system doesn't have the inrush current capability that the pwrcell system has. the system is designed by Pika Energy and Generac bought them about a year ago and incorporated into their product lineup.

All you need to know about the future and energy can be found in that transaction. The most widely known gas, propane, natural gas generator maker bought a battery based generator system because they see the writing on the wall.

 

[Gsmith22]

The solar systems normally put on houses will not provide power to you if the utility power goes down. It could be bright and sunny. There is no bypass mode which lets them work independently.

this is not true currently and more so moving forward. Although historically it is true that solar inverters were either made to shut down when no gird power is available (anti-island) OR they were made to never hook up to grid power (off grid type island system). However, a lot of newer ones to be used with battery back up are now all in one and capable of islanding meaning they are grid tied, can take power form the grid or panels, and can deliver power to house, batteries, or grid and then switch power sources instantaneously and don't back feed when the grid does down. Generac Pwrcell is one, inverters to use with Tesla power walls have to do the same thing (I'm less famillar if that is a Tesla product or various inverters can be used). I believe there are others as well but those are the most widely known systems that do this.

 

[Valveman]

Generac Pwrcell is about as complete a system available to do exactly what you want. 3ton heat pumps with a soft start could easily be started by this system and with panels being charged everyday, it will recharge the batteries for use at night. Closest competitor is tesla solar walls but that system doesn't have the inrush current capability that the pwrcell system has. the system is designed by Pika Energy and Generac bought them about a year ago and incorporated into their product lineup.

All you need to know about the future and energy can be found in that transaction. The most widely known gas, propane, natural gas generator maker bought a battery based generator system because they see the writing on the wall.

Excellent observation! I do believe you are right about the writing on the wall, and what they are doing is a good way to do it. Since it is expensive and uses up a LOT of natural resources to make batteries, making one that will last just overnight might be practical. Then on cloudy days or even months as it seems like in Texas right now, the gas generator will kick on. Emergency power is what Generac is famous for, and the gas generator would come on and save the day/week/month. Every house would need its own solar cells, batteries, and back up generator. Basically every home would have to purchase and maintain their own power system, including a backup generator. This could be expensive, but would keep us from having to rely on someone else to give us power. Without having to use the generator very often, it would even pay for itself eventually.

They need to do the same thing if they want to supply a grid with power from wind turbines. Have enough gas powered back up generators to supply the entire grid on cloudy days/weeks/months. The problem with wind turbines is they are huge machines that are expensive to purchase, install , and maintain. Without the subsides it would probably cost 3-4 times as much for energy as when using a gas generator and ten times more expensive than nuclear or hydro. Proper gas powered back up generators would at least eliminate the need for batteries, but they need to be kept ready and reliable. I was building a few wind generators back in the 80's and have been studying it ever since. I am amazed at how much the technology has improved over the years. But I still think it takes too much technology and too many big moving wearable parts to make wind power affordable.

 

[wwhitney]

The problem with wind turbines is they are huge machines that are expensive to purchase, install , and maintain. Without the subsides it would probably cost 3-4 times as much for energy as when using a gas generator and ten times more expensive than nuclear or hydro.

Again, I think you are probably off by an order of magnitude.

BTW, wind was expected to provide 7% of the energy generation in Texas this week. Its difficulties with the temperature are a small part of the current power problem in Texas. Alot more natural gas generators were knocked off line.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[TJanak]

Generac Pwrcell is about as complete a system available to do exactly what you want. 3ton heat pumps with a soft start could easily be started by this system and with panels being charged everyday, it will recharge the batteries for use at night. Closest competitor is tesla solar walls but that system doesn't have the inrush current capability that the pwrcell system has. the system is designed by Pika Energy and Generac bought them about a year ago and incorporated into their product lineup.

All you need to know about the future and energy can be found in that transaction. The most widely known gas, propane, natural gas generator maker bought a battery based generator system because they see the writing on the wall.

Interesting, thanks for the info. I checked out the Pwrcell website and I'll get a quote for the heck of it. And need to do more research on how it works.

I agree that Generac's purchase is telling about where they believe the future lies. I've always been one to investigate and even use the latest technology, but as I get older, I find myself often just wanting a proven product that I know works and I know how it works.

 

[Gsmith22]

Interesting, thanks for the info. I checked out the Pwrcell website and I'll get a quote for the heck of it. And need to do more research on how it works.

I agree that Generac's purchase is telling about where they believe the future lies. I've always been one to investigate and even use the latest technology, but as I get older, I find myself often just wanting a proven product that I know works and I know how it works.

check out https://www.pika-energy.com/ after generac bought the company, they just threw their name on it. There have probably been some advances but it probably remains 99% pika

this is a no frills interview with the founder/creator describing its features

there is other stuff on youtube too.

its a very unique inverter and I haven't found anything else like it. its downside is that it requires you to use a particular optimizer at the panels and its battery setup so you either use all its architecture or don't use it at all. So not great for a preinstalled system without undoing lots of functional stuff. Tesla started out using other inverters, eventually came out with their own, and I strongly suspect they are following this model and will introduce their own inverter this year doing the same thing - allowing for multi power input (grid, panels or batteries) and multi output (house, grid, or batteries) converting between DC and AC all in one box. Supposedly, Generac is coming out with an upgrade to also allow generator input as a 4th power input which makes sense given who Generac is. Prices for all of this is the real hurdle. But inrush current capability of the generac system is as best as I have been able to find and would be able to start ac or heat pump based heating and cooling systems.

 

[TJanak]

https://www.generac.com/generaccorp...energy/pwrcell_consumer_brochure.pdf?ext=.pdf gives a price of $43,000 for the 9 kWh (25 amp inrush) system, less any subsidies. Their online form for obtaining a quote for the 18 kWh system was not working.

I was going to ask about generator input capability, that would be slick. As you mentioned would make sense for Generac as well.

Pretty far north of a backup propane unit in terms of cost, but if off-grid living with grid connected capability is your goal, this is pretty neat. I don't know what an 18 kWh system costs, but maybe it would break even in 25 years?

My big roof surfaces face due east and west with a 7:12 pitch.

We kinda got off the original topic here...

 

[Valveman]

We kinda got off the original topic here...

I think we are still working on the original topic. This is good stuff! 25 years is a long time for a payback. Wondering if the equipment will even last that long. And how do solar panels hold up to hail storms? Besides the cost, hail is my main concern with solar panels.

 

[Jadziedzic]

FWIW, I opted for a Kohler home standby generator; they were favored by several of the installers who provided installation quotes, and the reviews I read on issues folks encountered with Generac residential units concerned me.

So far I've only had one issue with the solar electric system using a Solar Edge inverter and their power optimizers at the individual (Samsung 300W) panels: a switching relay in the inverter went belly up. The inverter was replaced under warranty. We're going on year 7 and to date have generated 81-1/2 MWh of power. Most months our electric bill is around $13, which is the minimum grid interconnect fee if our system produces more power than we consume from the grid.

 

[Dana]

It still doesn't matter how many acres of wind turbines they put up, they only work when the wind blows and it is not too cold to turn them on. Still going to need enough real generators to supply the entire grid during times the wind is not blowing. Kind of like having a solar powered car. You could only use it when the sun is shining. Lol!

There is no such thing as "...too cold to turn them on...", if it's designed to operate at cold temps. There are fully functional wind farms north of the arctic circle that operate at -50F and colder. This cold issue with TX/ERCOT wind farms is not universal even in TX, but it's a matter of specification and regulation to require winterizing the equipment, (just as the failing natural gas resources in TX need to be winterized.)

Texas has arguably waded too far into the deep end of deregulation of energy markets and finds itself over it's head. That deregulation has brought rock-bottom electricity prices, but a market where even very modest upcharges for winterizing equipment cut into the margins for investors, and thus aren't made.

BTW: Per ERCOT's data and prior projections wind power has been the only generation source to outperform expectations during this cold snap, whereas gas burners (that are the MAJOR fraction of the generation capacity) have woefully underperformed.

"Real generators" aren't nearly as important for grid reliability as higher connectivity. The high independence of the ERCOT grid has made it akin to an island, with very limited ability to import or export power. Giving up some of that independence for higher connectivity would come with a dose of federal regulation that many Texans have an instinctive aversion to, but it would in fact have kept the lights on. Oklahoma (where the lights did NOT go out) has a greater fraction of their power coming from wind than Texas, but they're on the Eastern Interconnect greater grid, where they can export excess wind rather than curtail it, and can import large amounts of power when needed. I haven't looked up how OK wind power has fared during this cold snap, or whether their wind farms are required to be properly winterized (as they are in MN, ND, and IA), but even if all the wind in OK were taken off line they would still be able to import enough power.

Bottom line- blaming TX/ERCOT electricity shortage problems on the (overperforming) wind power sector is simply a political canard projected by weak leadership ducking/deflecting responsibility, and has nothing to do with facts.

 

[TJanak]

I think we are still working on the original topic. This is good stuff! 25 years is a long time for a payback. Wondering if the equipment will even last that long. And how do solar panels hold up to hail storms? Besides the cost, hail is my main concern with solar panels.

I would venture to guess 25 years is maybe the expected life of system like this. Obviously not a money saving venture at this point just yet. I do wonder about hail. Especially up your way.

FWIW, I opted for a Kohler home standby generator; they were favored by several of the installers who provided installation quotes, and the reviews I read on issues folks encountered with Generac residential units concerned me.

I have yet to research brands. My brother has a Generac 60kW Protector (propane) that has not ran in the last year more than the first month after he bought it. Cannot get the local dealer to properly diagnose and service the unit. Not sure if Generac is much help either, although they gave him an alternate local dealer to contact for service. My brother is a diesel mechanic and has diagnosed the problem as valve timing is off; timing belt/chain has slipped. But he cannot tell the dealer this because it will void his warranty since he has disassembled parts to confirm this. But the local dealer tech cannot figure out the problem.

I do see Kohler and Cummins/Onan gensets advertised.

 

[Gsmith22]

I think we are still working on the original topic. This is good stuff! 25 years is a long time for a payback. Wondering if the equipment will even last that long. And how do solar panels hold up to hail storms? Besides the cost, hail is my main concern with solar panels.

Worked on a hail claim against a massive solar field in texas. long story short, hail damage was minimal, almost exclusively cosmetic and didn't result in a decrease in electric production. often installers walk on panels on house roofs. its a red herring

 

[Valveman]

Twenty years or so ago when wind turbines were first installed in this area I thought they were cool. I stopped and took pictures of them with pretty clouds or a sun set behind them. Over the years they just keep putting up more. Had a group of neighbors get together to try and keep those huge transmission lines from running right over our houses. Was just lucky they decided on a different route, as there was nothing we could do to stop the eminent domain thing. They turned a little ways down the road and put those transmission lines right over many other people's houses.

The map below doesn't do it justice. Like I said I can drive for 5 hours in several direction and never get out from under the shadow of those blades spinning overhead. As you can see the wind turbines were installed on the west side of Texas where there is lots of good farm land, but not many people. Then they put several huge transmission lines to the east and south where all the people live. Having to run such long transmission lines causes 50% of the energy to be lost before it ever gets to the east side of the state.

Over the years I have learned to detest wind turbines as they are always overhead or in the background. No more clear blue sky, No more pretty sun rises or sun sets. Clear star filled nights are now a sea of blinking red lights. Coyotes are getting fat eating the dead birds on the ground. Can no longer camp or hunt in these areas as they are off limits. Roads and transmission lines scar every inch of the earth. I really can't imagine every inch of every piece of land choked with wind turbines as thick as they are in this area.

You won't find any information about how much maintenance and trouble wind turbines are, as that doesn't fit the narrative. It is not like solar panels where sun just shines on a semiconductor to produce electricity. There are huge and expensive moving parts in a wind turbine, and they all wear out often and need to be replaced. When the government stops paying subsides, we will be paying 300% to 400% more for energy produced by wind turbines. And we will still need 100% backup so we have power when the wind isn't blowing.

 

[wwhitney]

Having to run such long transmission lines causes 50% of the energy to be lost before it ever gets to the east side of the state.

Do you have any data specific to those transmission lines? Because 5%-10% is far more typical.

When the government stops paying subsides, we will be paying 300% to 400% more for energy produced by wind turbines.

Looks like the federal production tax credit for wind and solar is $18/MWh this year. That's much less than the average wholesale price for electricity.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/wholesale-markets.php

I think you have another couple factor of ten errors.

Cheers, Wayne

 

[Sarg]

I recall a friend 30 years ago that transferred into "Wind Power" division at the GE corporation. I spoke with him after he had set roots and he told me it was great. He got to travel all over the world on GE's dime and made tons of money. He also said he thought the engineering on the systems was crap ....... but was very happy because he said he would get to retire before they started falling apart. He's out now living the good life.

 

[Gsmith22]

Do you have any data specific to those transmission lines? Because 5%-10% is far more typical.

I would love to see a source to back up the 50% loss of power claim as well. Its nonsensical given that power at extremely high voltages is transmitted across the continent regularly without losses like this. Why wouldn't that be done with Texas' grid too? Is the power made from windmills traveling on some sort of windmill exclusive low voltage transmission lines that solar, natural gas, coal, and nuclear are not allowed to travel on in Texas?

Its totally fine to be against crowding out the open terrain with wind turbines because of aesthetic reasons as expressed by valveman. I don't want a power plant on the lot adjacent to my house for the same reason (although zoning regulations would likely prevent that anyway). But power has to come from somewhere and we can't burn our way out of the problem. wind and hydroelectric will always play a role but as with all renewable sources they aren't constantly available everywhere. Barring someone figuring out how to do fusion, it is likely solar with storage is the way out. the storage part of that is what has to get worked out along with increased efficiency of solar panels (which have come a long way with a lot of room to grow).